Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Proven Dota 2 MMR Calculation using DOTABUFF Statistics

DotA 2 MMR leaderboards. Source: blog.dota2.com
LATEST AND UPDATED (Still working for year 2017 and year 2018. Although you won't get the number MMR anymore, smurfing still works and this method is still applicable for the new matchmaking system, which is the medal system) - Many players are struggling to get the high MMR (Matchmaking Rating) that they have wanted. Most of them searched online for answers, "How to get 4k MMR? How to get 5k MMR?" This is the most common question to those who want to get on the list.

For a more updated version of this guide, visit this article: Dota 2 MMR Calculation For Ranking Calibration

There are 'superstitious' articles online about getting a very high MMR after TBD (To be determined) calibration (Like spam Nature's Prophet and Zeus heroes). Most of the people who followed those articles ended up being disappointed in their MMR. After months of observing player matches through DOTABUFF, I think I have theoretically found the correct calculation of MMR.

Here we are my friends, the Secret to get High MMR on DotA 2:

Using DOTABUFF statistics, we can calculate how much MMR we will get after TBD. Click to go full size.
There is truth in articles saying that MMR is determined not in the TBD stage but calculation of your MMR started when you create your Dota 2 account, meaning, you have a hidden MMR with you when you are Level 1. This is the reason why there are speculations to why some players get a very low MMR although they had most wins than losses during their TBD MMR games and why their friend has higher MMR rating after TBD when he had more losses than wins. Most accounts I have seen from their first matches always start at the Normal Skill Bracket, maybe around 2,500 MMR*.

What the skill brackets in DOTABUFF mean?
  • Normal Skill - around 2,500 to 3,000 MMR*
  • High Skill - around 3,000 MMR to 3,500 MMR*
  • Very High Skill - 3,500 + MMR*

Using the image above we will use it as our basis:

Legends: KDA - Kills/Deaths/Assists

  • Green #1 - The first game every played was Tinker, with a good amount of KDA (17/1/10) or 27.00 KDA Ratio.
  • Blue # 2 A - Because of the good KDA ratio of the first game with a won match, the player's bracket was moved to a High Skill (Around 3,000 MMR)
  • Blue # 2 B- The second Tinker's KDA ratio (12/9/9) wasn't that good enough compared to the previous game, although the match was won, the Ember Spirit game was still on High Skill.
  • Green # 3 - Due to the loss of Ember Spirit and very bad KDA ratio (5/11/15) the next game was moved down to the Normal Skill bracket (2,500 MMR). This time, the Tinker got a very decent KDA of 17/0/9 with a won match.
  • Blue # 4 -  The decent stats of the Tinker got the player back into the High Skill bracket. But the Templar Assassin got a very bad KDA and the match was lost.
  • Green # 5  - The lost and bad KDA of the Templar game got the player back again to the Normal Skill bracket. The match was lost with quite a good Tinker KDA.
  •  
  • Blue # 6 A -  The good Tinker KDA moved the player back to the High Skill bracket again. A won match with a Juggernaut but not quite the good KDA.
  • Blue # 6 B - Another Juggernaut game with a better KDA than the previous game.
  • Blue # 6 C - A Tinker with a better KDA ratio than the previous Juggernaut.
  • Red # 7 - Because of the improving statistics on the three games from Blue # 6 A to C with won matches, the player was now moved to the Very High Skill bracket. A very disappointing loss with a the very worst KDA of Silencer (0/7/0).
  • Blue # 8 - The disappointing Silencer on a Very High Skill bracket dragged the player back to the High Skill bracket. This time, a Queen of Pain with a decent KDA.
  • Red # 9 - The player has proven himself once again by doing a good KDA of Queen of Pain with a won match, because of this the bracket got moved to the Very High Skill again. A juggernaut with a good KDA on a won match under 30 minutes was listed on the bracket. The next match, which is not shown will still be on the Very High Skill bracket.
Using the illustration as the evidence, what is my conclusion?

Well, I guess Valve has changed their calculation on determining the player's MMR. I've known some people who uses the old strategy to get promising MMRs (4.5k +) using Nature Prophet on every game or Zeus but they were disappointed.

Because of this change, it is a good determiner, the player's MMR is now based on his gameplay, which can be affected by factors such as:

  • KDA ratio (the higher the better)
  • GPM (Gold per minute) and XPM (EXP per minute)
  • Win rate
  • Hero damage
Here are some heroes that you could master and use to get a very high MMR above 3.5k or more depending on how well you play:

  • Queen of Pain - High Hero damage, KDA and GPM if played well.
  • Tinker - High hero damage, KDA and GPM, we all know that.
  • Spectre - High hero damage, KDA and GPM (with Hand of Midas and use ulti every clash and try to kill soft heroes)
  • Storm Spirit - High hero damage, KDA and GPM
  • Invoker - this hero needs skill in order to master
  • Meepo - requires skill to master with high damage, KDA and GPM
  • For August, use those insane heroes that are OP today
  • Carry-type heroes can reach you 5k MMR after TBD

Remember, these heroes above are useless if you don't know how to play them, spam picking these heroes will not do you any good since MMR calibration after TBD will not be determined by you heroes but how good your stats are.
To be precise, the calculation is now really based on how well you play the game.

  • What to do if you have a very low MMR? Try your best to win and improve.
  • What to do if you are now on a Very High Skill bracket? Keep doing what you're doing and do your best on winning the game. 
Remember, the early stage (below Level 13) is one of the most crucial in determining your MMR, if you win you will gradually be rewarded with a hundred or thousand MMR. This is the reason why it will only take 1 game to get from Normal to High skill bracket and High skill to Very High skill.

Unlike if you get your MMR after TBD, you will only be rewarded with 25 MMR points if you'll win, and a minus  < 20 if you'll lose. So make sure to play very good before the TBD stage because it will greatly impact on determining your true MMR. Remember, MMR calculation uses numbers, so you cannot trick it. The only way to get a promising MMR is to play the game with your best heroes.

I hope this has helped all of you.

NOTE: Even if you're stuck in High Skill bracket, you can still get into VERY HIGH SKILL bracket with more than 4.2k mmr by spamming heroes that does insane Hero damage and game impact in the game (Like Invoker). In the TBD stage, wins dont matter much actually, it just depends on the stats of your gameplay. All factors will affect how well you play, if your stats (Hero damage, GPM, XPM, Tower Damage) are greater than most of the players in the game it will be a huge MMR boost! In short, you can't trick this new MMR system, you just have to play good and the calculations will do it for you! Good luck!

Read: Secrets to VERY HIGH SKILL MMR on DOTA
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